10 Day Forecast

The day has finally arrived when the 10-day forecast becomes visible for Ironman Florida.

0% rain and a high of 78, ideal racing temperatures in my opinion.

But, like the weather, no one really knows, how will the day go?

There are probably two people in the world who can get away with feeding drastically incorrect information without getting fired: weathermen and statisticians. Sure they have to know their stuff, do their research, apply some inductive reasoning, but in the end, all they do is make a prediction. So what if they are wrong? Nothing, really. Derecho, anyone? How about the disappointment of waking up in the morning to no snow and the fact that you actually do have to go to school/work that day? Check out an amazing video of my favorite weatherman regarding the 2010 snowmageddon. 

With the days, hours, and minutes dwindling down to November 2nd, I'm surprisingly calm. With my niece encouraging me to be fearless, I am able to face the day with more excitement. But as a natural math nerd and a statistics teacher, I wonder about the probability of actually finishing the Ironman race.

The chart below shows finishers and DNF (did not finish-ers) in 2010 via runtri.com. Click here for a bigger picture.

2010 results

Out of 2,424 athletes, only 99 did not finish. A 4% non-finish rate, a 96% finish rate. I'll take those odds. But wait-hold-on-a-minute, there is a still 4 out of 100 chance that one of those will be me. 

Math and statistics is a tricky thing. No event is guaranteed unless the probability is 1 (or 100%), and how many things in life truly have a probability of 1? On top of that, imagine you are racing with just 4 friends. The probability of all of you finishing would be .96 to the fifth power, assuming someone finishing/not finishing does not affect the other person. The chances of all five of you finishing would be 84.9%. With 10 people? Down to 66%. Oh. Crap!

I promise you, I'm not trying to freak myself or anybody else out. But that is my point exactly. Just as absurd and ridiculous those statistics are (albeit legit theoretical math), sometimes you just have to throw all that crap out the window. 

So what if you're the last swimmer out of the water? (FYI a legit fear). You still get to bike and run! So what if you get a flat? But, what if you don't and just end up cruising through the ride? What if it rains during the run? But, what if it doesn't?

Take a word from the wise.

Phil'sosophy

If you're still not convinced, a 96% probability of finishing is still better than these odds:

1. Getting a one pair in poker (42.3%)

2. Getting anything in poker (49.9%)

3. Students who graduate within six years at Johns Hopkins University (94%)

4. A celebrity marriage will last a lifetime (33%)
5. A first time marriage that lasts a lifetime (59%)
6. Free throw percentage of top NBA free throw shooter Stephen Curry ( 90.3%)
7. High school graduation rate in Montgomery County, MD (84%)
8. High school graduation rate in Fairfax County- the highest rate among the 50 largest school districts in the nation (85%)