10 Day Forecast

The day has finally arrived when the 10-day forecast becomes visible for Ironman Florida.

0% rain and a high of 78, ideal racing temperatures in my opinion.

But, like the weather, no one really knows, how will the day go?

There are probably two people in the world who can get away with feeding drastically incorrect information without getting fired: weathermen and statisticians. Sure they have to know their stuff, do their research, apply some inductive reasoning, but in the end, all they do is make a prediction. So what if they are wrong? Nothing, really. Derecho, anyone? How about the disappointment of waking up in the morning to no snow and the fact that you actually do have to go to school/work that day? Check out an amazing video of my favorite weatherman regarding the 2010 snowmageddon. 

With the days, hours, and minutes dwindling down to November 2nd, I'm surprisingly calm. With my niece encouraging me to be fearless, I am able to face the day with more excitement. But as a natural math nerd and a statistics teacher, I wonder about the probability of actually finishing the Ironman race.

The chart below shows finishers and DNF (did not finish-ers) in 2010 via runtri.com. Click here for a bigger picture.

2010 results

Out of 2,424 athletes, only 99 did not finish. A 4% non-finish rate, a 96% finish rate. I'll take those odds. But wait-hold-on-a-minute, there is a still 4 out of 100 chance that one of those will be me. 

Math and statistics is a tricky thing. No event is guaranteed unless the probability is 1 (or 100%), and how many things in life truly have a probability of 1? On top of that, imagine you are racing with just 4 friends. The probability of all of you finishing would be .96 to the fifth power, assuming someone finishing/not finishing does not affect the other person. The chances of all five of you finishing would be 84.9%. With 10 people? Down to 66%. Oh. Crap!

I promise you, I'm not trying to freak myself or anybody else out. But that is my point exactly. Just as absurd and ridiculous those statistics are (albeit legit theoretical math), sometimes you just have to throw all that crap out the window. 

So what if you're the last swimmer out of the water? (FYI a legit fear). You still get to bike and run! So what if you get a flat? But, what if you don't and just end up cruising through the ride? What if it rains during the run? But, what if it doesn't?

Take a word from the wise.

Phil'sosophy

If you're still not convinced, a 96% probability of finishing is still better than these odds:

1. Getting a one pair in poker (42.3%)

2. Getting anything in poker (49.9%)

3. Students who graduate within six years at Johns Hopkins University (94%)

4. A celebrity marriage will last a lifetime (33%)
5. A first time marriage that lasts a lifetime (59%)
6. Free throw percentage of top NBA free throw shooter Stephen Curry ( 90.3%)
7. High school graduation rate in Montgomery County, MD (84%)
8. High school graduation rate in Fairfax County- the highest rate among the 50 largest school districts in the nation (85%)

Twenty-two

Two weeks ago my little brother, the youngest of our herd turned 22. As happy as I was to celebrate, I was sad it was not me turning 22. I loved the age of 22 for several reasons..

1) There is an awesome Taylor Swift song about being 22!

2) It is divisible by 11 and at age 22 I learned the awesome 11 divisibility rule. Aren't you curious to know what it is? (YES!) Hopefully everybody remembers the easier divisibility rules. For 2, if the last number is even, it is divisible by 2. For 3, if the numbers add up to be divisible by 3, it is divisible by 3. For 4, if the last two numbers are divisible by 4, the whole number is divisible by 4. But 11???

Watch this cool trick: If you flip flop subtracting and adding all the digits from left to right, and the final sum/difference is divisible by 11, then the entire number is divisible by 11.

3) It's a year past 21 where you've tried/drank almost everything out there and have successfully figured out how much you can handle without falling asleep or throwing up on the metro.

4)  It's the age I completed my first triathlon (Dog Days of Summer Tri in Ashburn) which changed the rest of my life. No, I had absolutely no idea what I was doing. I swam in a Costco bathing suit and proceeded to throw on shorts and a t-shirt for the bike and run. I walked up a not-so-steep hill during the ride not even sure if it was legal. Nobody came with me and I don't even have pictures to prove that I actually did it. I walked almost half of the run. I can't find the results but I'm pretty sure I came in the bottom 10.

I'm not sure what "inspired" me to keep going after sucking so much. Maybe it was because I had already spent $250 on Nation's Tri a month later. But if you put it all in perspective, the lower you start, the more you can improve. 

Nation's Tri 2009. It was actually more like 3:59:49 (promise)

For someone who never swam*, biked, or ran more than maybe once a year (each!) prior to age 22, I think I did a pretty darn good job the following years; which leads me to believe that it truly is never too late to start something new. For those younger, I hope you love and appreciate the sheer awesomeness and opportunities heading your way. For those older and my future self, I hope you never forget what it feels like to be 22 (or the 11 divisibility rule).


"It seems like one one of those nights, we ditched the whole scene and end up dreaming, instead of sleeping..."


*Okay I actually swam for one summer swim season when I was 10. I stopped because I burned easily in the sun and would swim for one day and spend 3 days recovering from my sunburn. The more I burned, the more I lathered on sunscreen. It wasn't until I was 18 I realized I was allergic to sunscreen :(