10 Day Forecast

The day has finally arrived when the 10-day forecast becomes visible for Ironman Florida.

0% rain and a high of 78, ideal racing temperatures in my opinion.

But, like the weather, no one really knows, how will the day go?

There are probably two people in the world who can get away with feeding drastically incorrect information without getting fired: weathermen and statisticians. Sure they have to know their stuff, do their research, apply some inductive reasoning, but in the end, all they do is make a prediction. So what if they are wrong? Nothing, really. Derecho, anyone? How about the disappointment of waking up in the morning to no snow and the fact that you actually do have to go to school/work that day? Check out an amazing video of my favorite weatherman regarding the 2010 snowmageddon. 

With the days, hours, and minutes dwindling down to November 2nd, I'm surprisingly calm. With my niece encouraging me to be fearless, I am able to face the day with more excitement. But as a natural math nerd and a statistics teacher, I wonder about the probability of actually finishing the Ironman race.

The chart below shows finishers and DNF (did not finish-ers) in 2010 via runtri.com. Click here for a bigger picture.

2010 results

Out of 2,424 athletes, only 99 did not finish. A 4% non-finish rate, a 96% finish rate. I'll take those odds. But wait-hold-on-a-minute, there is a still 4 out of 100 chance that one of those will be me. 

Math and statistics is a tricky thing. No event is guaranteed unless the probability is 1 (or 100%), and how many things in life truly have a probability of 1? On top of that, imagine you are racing with just 4 friends. The probability of all of you finishing would be .96 to the fifth power, assuming someone finishing/not finishing does not affect the other person. The chances of all five of you finishing would be 84.9%. With 10 people? Down to 66%. Oh. Crap!

I promise you, I'm not trying to freak myself or anybody else out. But that is my point exactly. Just as absurd and ridiculous those statistics are (albeit legit theoretical math), sometimes you just have to throw all that crap out the window. 

So what if you're the last swimmer out of the water? (FYI a legit fear). You still get to bike and run! So what if you get a flat? But, what if you don't and just end up cruising through the ride? What if it rains during the run? But, what if it doesn't?

Take a word from the wise.

Phil'sosophy

If you're still not convinced, a 96% probability of finishing is still better than these odds:

1. Getting a one pair in poker (42.3%)

2. Getting anything in poker (49.9%)

3. Students who graduate within six years at Johns Hopkins University (94%)

4. A celebrity marriage will last a lifetime (33%)
5. A first time marriage that lasts a lifetime (59%)
6. Free throw percentage of top NBA free throw shooter Stephen Curry ( 90.3%)
7. High school graduation rate in Montgomery County, MD (84%)
8. High school graduation rate in Fairfax County- the highest rate among the 50 largest school districts in the nation (85%)

Fearless

Google fearless, and these are some things you get:

"Fearless is not the the absence of fear. It's not being completely unafraid. Fearless is having fears. Lots of them. Fearless is living in spite of those things that scare you death."

"Being able to stare someone in the eye as they hold a rubber band wrapped around their hand ready to fling at you without flinching."

"Having fears, but jumping anyways."

Don't flinch

Mention fearless, and this is what I think:

1. People who skydive and bungee jump
2. An awesome Taylor Swift song/album/concert
3. My niece
4. read on...

It took me 4 seasons of Triathlons to want to sign up for an Ironman. Not because I didn't think I could do it, not because of any physical problems, but because I was scared. What happens if you can't survive the training? What happens if someone steals your bike the week before your race? What happens if everything goes perfectly up to the day of the race, and by some rare probability you don't finish?

For my one-year-old niece, everything is new to her, yet she faces new things and new people with no fear. Two days into her trip this summer in Maryland, she learned how to climb stairs. The next day her dad showed her how to pivot at the top of the stairs and go down backwards. She first tried on the two step hardwood floor from the kitchen to the living room, and fell flat on her face (on my watch, oops.) Later on she tried again and succeeded, and the day after she could climb down backwards from the second to the first floor (13 steps!). She's the friendliest baby in public and will smile at you coyly, let you pick her up, even crawl or walk over to socialize.

If you fall...

try again!

Meeting her friend Victoria for the first time

Trust me, she wasn't always this fun to be around. Unlucky with acid reflex, K would only sleep a few hours at a time (up until 7 months!), torturing her parents and everyone around her until they played the "vacuum" song or go through an elaborate fifteen step process of putting her down. One day it stopped, just like one day a few weeks ago she started walking. Like my sister said, she walked when she was ready and not when someone made her.

Big girl standing with big girl jeans

So, what's the last thing I think of when I hear of the word fearless?

4. What would K do?

In the past 3 weeks, I've survived completed an 18 mile run/110 mile ride training weekend, a 2.4 mile swim, and a 20 mile run/120 mile ride training weekend. All of which I had never done altogether, two of which were "longest rides ever," and one "longest swim ever." It's scary to try something you've never done. It's scary because you don't know if you can do it, no matter how hard you try. But like my niece, you brush off the fear, grow up, and face it on your own terms and on your own time. 

Back to back 20 mile run, 120 mile ride weekend

September has been a huge month. I'll never be as fearless as K, but I've learned how she faces life; look fear in the eye, and just jump anyways. After all, I have to make sure she as at least one cool Ironman Aunt.

K's fearless face